The AP-KN poll has tracked a group of people and their views since the beginning of the 2008 presidential campaign. Among all 2008 voters, 51 percent say he deserves to be defeated in November 2012 while 47 percent support his re-election — essentially a tie.
Among Democrats, 47 percent say Obama should be challenged for the 2012 nomination and 51 percent say he should not be opposed. Those favoring a contest include most who backed Hillary Rodham Clinton’s unsuccessful faceoff against Obama for the 2008 nomination. The poll did not ask if Democrats would support particular challengers.
The AP-Knowledge Networks Poll was conducted from Sept. 17 to Oct. 7. The original panel of adults was randomly selected using traditional telephone polling methods, but interviews were conducted online. People without computers or Internet access were given that technology for free.
The margin of sampling error for all 1,254 adults is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. It is plus or minus 6.5 points for the 571 Democrats, and 5.3 points for the 852 people who said on Election Day 2008 that they had voted.
The poll was taken a month ago, so those numbers are probably higher now.
Jen, You're right! They probably would be higher now.
AP has truly restored their credibility with me this past year. I had come to suspect them a lot in 2008.
You might be intersted in this tidbit. I heard today on CNN (John King+Anderson Cooper+Wolf Blitzer and a whole bunch of analysts at two tables one left wing, one right wing) - John King presented this stack up of 1994 spread between likely voters for Dems and Pubs, and current spread.... and summarized that in 1994, this day (2 days before election) the spread between likely Repub voters vs. likely Dem voter was 8% in favor of GOP. Today, same spread was 10% in favor of GOP. Go figure!
On top of that, They expressed some serious doubt on what Pres.Obama can do to come to the Center and work acorss the aisles.. unlike in the case of Pres.Clinton.
Add to that... this from varius articles this week... Pres.Obama's impression as elitistic has really stuck.
Pres.Clinton had a huge advantage as a relator that Pres.Obama truly lacks. so the chances of him truly succeeding in the next two years are slim to none.
There is every likelihood of a challenger in 2012. Question is whether the challenger will be done in by the relentless advertisements like we saw in the past three months. I hope this part of democracy gets cured so people can actually get to the DETAILS of policy proposals, approach so we know what we are voting for. Without a 3-party system, that level of detail is essential for the Independent moderates.
Again, here's to hoping for a serious challenger in 2012. And, double hope that it's Hillary. :)
typo corrected
-- Edited by Sanders on Monday 1st of November 2010 04:28:57 AM
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Democracy needs defending - SOS Hillary Clinton, Sept 8, 2010 Democracy is more than just elections - SOS Hillary Clinton, Oct 28, 2010