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Hillarysworld -> Hillary 2012 -> Obama's Worst Nightmare: A Primary Challenge in '12 (WSJ 10/11/10)
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TOPIC: Obama's Worst Nightmare: A Primary Challenge in '12 (WSJ 10/11/10)
Jen the Michigander


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Obama's Worst Nightmare: A Primary Challenge in '12 (WSJ 10/11/10)
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http://blogs.wsj.com/capitaljournal/2010/10/11/obama%E2%80%99s-worst-nightmare-a-primary-challenge-in-%E2%80%9912/
One of the more interesting polls in recent months did not measure President Barack Obama’s approval rating, test the generic strength of the two parties for the fall election, or provide the latest data on incumbent unpopularity. Rather, it was a Gallup Poll taken late last month that showed Mr. Obama ahead of his erstwhile 2008 rival, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2012. Gallup placed Mr. Obama’s lead at 15 percentage points among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents – 52%-to-37%.

Two things about the poll have to be concerning for Mr. Obama. First, that he is drawing the support of barely 50% of Democratic-oriented voters for renomination. Second, that a poll of this type was even taken.

One of the basic rules of thumb in presidential politics is that while incumbents who draw significant primary challenges may win renomination, they don’t win re-election. At least that has been the case over the last half century, an era when presidential primaries have replaced the national party conventions as the locale where nominations are decided.

In short, it does not take a “celebrity” candidate such as Clinton to cast doubts on the reelection chances of a beleaguered president. A lesser-known primary challenger such as Buchanan in 1992, or Sen. Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota in 1968, can suffice. Mr. McCarthy was not especially well known when he launched his campaign that cycle. But he quickly emerged as the champion of the anti-Vietnam War wing of the Democratic Party. His unexpectedly strong showing in the New Hampshire primary, followed by the entry of Sen. Robert Kennedy of New York into the race, is credited with helping drive President Lyndon B. Johnson to the political sidelines.

It is an open question this time what the post-November jockeying on the Democratic side will produce. President Obama, like LBJ, might ultimately decide that one full term in the White House is enough. Or if the midterm election results next month are not as bad for the Democrats as expected, he may run for re-election in 2012 without any notable intra-party opposition at all, as Bill Clinton (D) did in 1996 and George W. Bush (R) in 2004.

But if the Democrats fare poorly Nov. 2, the economy remains sluggish, and the president’s approval rating continues to be mired well below 50%, the prospect of a significant primary challenge to President Obama cannot be ruled out. While it is unlikely at this point that a Democratic icon such as Hillary Clinton would lead the opposition, some other politician with ties to disgruntled elements on the Democratic left might just decide to do so. It has happened before.

I'm hoping some other Dem challenges Obama first. Maybe Howard Dean or someone from the left. Or maybe a centrist like Evan Bayh. Then Hillary can enter the race later.

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I agree with the author that the best turn of events would probably be if Pres.Obama decides that he does not need a second term.

I think the three presidents being compared is a bit off on the mark in terms of what got the prior two re-elected.  Pres.Clinton truly re-earned his second term.  Pres.W.Bush - his re-election was more of "you got us into the Iraq mess; you clean it up"

Well, Pres.Obama probably was attempting an internal "issue war" but his communication of the "issue war" has been dismal.  In particular on health care reform.

As to whether a successor Dem leader such as Hillary can come in and clean up in particular the health care mess -- and the only way to clean it up is to somehow introduce a public option -- is near impossible without that 60-seat Senate..

The real solution needed is far from the reach of either party.  Reversing the trend of job-creation/destruction is something that is a very hard nut to crack when the country has severely lost its manufacturing edge and has lost many years worth of top-notch talent due to highly restrictive (legal) immigration policy under the Pres.W.Bush years [and yes, that has had a severe impact on the US economy on many fronts].

I just sincerely hope that the country does not go into a social extreme conservatism in the guise of fiscal conservatism and austerity.  Yes, austerity will be forced upon us regardless of which party is at the throne... and that will be a function of economy and the budget constraints.

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