The new round of speculation that Hillary Clinton could replace Joe Biden as President Barack Obama’s running mate in 2012 misses the point.
Clinton doesn’t want to be vice president. But, her old advisers say, she may still want to be president.
And all the denials of author Bob Woodward’s hint at a Clinton-Obama ticket in 2012, the latest in a string of similar notions floated by pundits, miss another point: that speculation about Clinton’s future is likely to be an on-going cross to bear for the Obama administration, fanned by a retinue of former Clinton aides and friends who may not be happy until another Clinton is in the White House. (See: Woodward: VP Hillary ‘on the table’)
Clinton’s political team, many of them still in exile from the Obama White House, whether in the private sector or in other government posts, remains on standby. They are also the most invested in her prospects: Their relevance depends, to a degree, on hers. One, Ann Lewis, maintains an organization based on Clinton’s massive email list. It’s called NoLimits.org. Another, pollster Mark Penn, conducted a public survey for The Hill this week that included a pot-stirring match-up of Clinton and Obama in 2012.
These advisers and supporters remain, to varying degrees, on the outside, but many still talk to Clinton or to her husband. Clinton recently finished paying off the debts her 2008 campaign owed Penn – a mark of their continued relationship.
I didn't know that Hillary had paid off her debts to Penn.
It is from this group that Woodward presumably picked up suggestions that Clinton is interested in the 2012 ticket – and that Obama might consider putting her on it. But there is no evidence that Clinton has talked about it. In fact, just the opposite, according to some in her orbit.
“Not happening,” said one of her 2008 campaign’s topmost figures. “Stay tuned for 2016.”
I guess it's too soon for anyone in Hillary's close inner circle to mention 2012?
“Once you run for president you always want to be president,” James Carville, Bill Clinton’s former campaign manager, told POLITICO when he was asked about Hillary Clinton’s prospects. “My assumption is that once you’ve run you’re going to run again.”
Clinton made the case in the Democratic primaries that Obama would be unable to win among working-class white Democratic voters. The Democrats head into the midterms profoundly weak among some of those same white voters – though Obama’s biggest problem remains with Republicans, and pollsters argue that their real problem is a lackluster Democratic base.
But Obama’s weakness on the cultural turf that Clinton claimed for her own (and where Obama did well enough in 2008) makes speculation about her prospects natural. Bill Clinton has also spent much of the year roaming from Arkansas to rural Pennsylvania, shoring up Democrats in Obama’s weakest districts and, simultaneously, reinforcing the notion that Clintons can play where Obama can’t.
Clinton is also, polls show, substantially more popular than the president. (See: Clinton finds her ‘groove’)She has a 55-23 favorable-unfavorable rating, compared with Obama’s 46-49 figure in one recent NBC/WSJ poll.
“Being the vice president on his ticket the next time around doesn’t do anything for her politically. It’s not a step up,” said a former senior Clinton aide.
“Hillary would re-emerge as that cold calculating ambitious you know what that killed her in her own campaign,” said another top 2008 aide.
Others in Clinton’s circle do see the vice presidency as a useful stepping stone.
She could help him lock down the voters that aren’t with him [in 2012],” suggested one Clinton intimate, who said he hadn’t spoken to her on the subject. “This would position her well for 2016.”
But Clinton’s aides earlier this year had a more realistic stepping stone in mind: the Pentagon. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has signaled that he’ll end his tenure next year, and aides to both cabinet secretaries viewed her as a logical choice. Serving as secretary of defense would also be the ultimate credential for a candidate whose political team was always obsessed with insuring that the first serious female presidential candidate could project, above all, strength.
And Woodward, floating the idea of the vice presidency this week, also suggested that the real focus is 2016.
“Hillary Clinton could run in her own right in 2016 and be younger than Ronald Reagan when he was elected president,” he said.
Woodward was on the air Tuesday night as part of the media blitz around his new book, “Obama’s Wars,” a tome for whose accuracy the White House has vouched. But the theory of a Clinton recovery wasn’t in the book, casting some doubt on the strength of the reporting behind it.
“Since when does Woodward keep big news nuggets OUT of his books?” one well-placed Democrat asked in POLITICO’s Playbook.
There’s little Clinton can – or should – be doing from Foggy Bottom to set up a presidential bid. But she has also done nothing to persuade supporters that she’s not planning on it.
“Running for President is like having sex: you don’t do it once and forget about it,” said Carville. “It has a high, high recidivism rate.”
2012 is unlikely, but stay tuned for 2016! I'll take that.. but I still hold hopes for 2012.
And, no, I will not be voting for just any female in 2012 to get back at the media or DNP. No more of that reactionary voting. Got to research candidates and pick the absolute best option of all available after researching their position on all issues.
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Democracy needs defending - SOS Hillary Clinton, Sept 8, 2010 Democracy is more than just elections - SOS Hillary Clinton, Oct 28, 2010