President Barack Obama is a man whose political fortunes have imploded. The national political rock star of 2008 has become the Democratic political albatross of 2010. Democratic candidates in the 2010 gubernatorial, U.S. Senate, and House of Representatives elections are running away from him, not with him.
Obama’s approval rating reaches new lows every day, due to worsening economic conditions and a foreign policy of appeasement of hostile nations and downgrading of alliances with loyal friends. On the two leading 2010 “values” controversies, to wit, the Arizona immigration law and the Cordoba Ground Zero mosque initiative, the President is definitely on the losing side of public opinion.
There are two looming political nightmares for the President. First, a growing number of mainstream economists are predicting a severe recession in 2011. Second, unless the tax reductions enacted during the administration of former President George W. Bush are extended beyond December 31, 2010, the American public will be subjected to the largest income tax hike in American history in 2011.
If either one of these two situations occur, Obama will be in far worse political shape than he is in today. If in 2011 the American public experiences both a severe recession and a huge income tax hike, there is no way that the President will be reelected, regardless of who wins the Republican presidential nomination. Any of the prospective GOP presidential nominees — Mitt Romney, Mitch Daniels, Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, or John Thune — would easily defeat Barack Obama under such a scenario.
The key political question would then be whether Hillary Clinton would challenge Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination. If Obama looks like a sure reelection loser, I suspect that many Democrats would actually favor Hillary mounting such a challenge. She is the one Democrat who could possibly defeat any of the above mentioned GOP candidates if Obama’s reelection prospects become moribund.
Obama is less supportive of Israel than any other President since the Declaration of Independence of the Jewish State in 1948. If Israel launches such an attack, Obama will certainly condemn Israel’s actions and maybe even seek sanctions against the Jewish State.
By contrast, both Bill and Hillary Clinton have been far more supportive of Israel than Barack Obama. Although they both have had disagreements with Likud Party leaders, they remain on very friendly terms with the major players in Israel’s Labor Party. Obama is viewed negatively by an overwhelming majority of Israelis, right and left.
Furthermore, Hillary Clinton has been far more hawkish than Obama against the Iranian Ahmadinejad government. If Obama were to repudiate an Israeli preemptive strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, there is a significant chance that this would lead to a Hillary Clinton resignation as Secretary of State.
If Hillary then defeated Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination, she would have at least an even money chance of defeating any of the above mentioned GOP Presidential candidates in the general election. The failures of Barack Obama have not adversely affected the standing of Bill and Hillary Clinton with the American public.
As a long time New Jersey GOP stalwart, I have a shameful confession to make. I had a surprisingly good working relationship with the then Senator Hillary Clinton and her staff while I served as Region 2 EPA Regional Administrator during the second term of President George W. Bush. I certainly would never support her for President, but if I had to have a Democratic President, I would far rather have her than a Barack Obama.
Me too! For once, here's a journalist I can agree with!
Hillary’s concern for the environment was genuine, and unlike Obama, she was willing to work closely with Republican members of the House of Representatives and the Senate to achieve bipartisan goals. This was confirmed for me in a conversation I had with my closest friend in the New York State Republican Congressional delegation, the then Congressman Jim Walsh, who represented the Syracuse area.
Another distinguishing feature of the then Senator Hillary Clinton was her Senate staff. On the Democratic side of the aisle, she had the most competent staff of any Senator, with the exception of the late Senator Ted Kennedy’s Labor Committee staff. Her record of Senate accomplishment stood in sharp contrast to that of the Senator from Illinois, Barack Obama, who established a record of substantial nonachievement.
If the opportunity to wrest the nomination from Barack Obama arises and the Clintons decide to take the political plunge, I am convinced that they would not make the same mistakes they made in the 2008 campaign. The Clintons never make the same mistakes twice.
All the above is a matter of sheer speculation, I admit. Perhaps Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid will find some way to extend the Bush tax cuts in a way to at least hold harmless middle class families. Perhaps the economy will not deteriorate further in 2011.
If my above described possible scenario develops, however, and if Hillary runs against Barack in 2012, remember you read about the possibility of it here first.
I love this article. So many cogent, positive points, as you noted, Jen.
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It was we, the people; not we, the white male citizens; nor yet we, the male citizens; but we, the whole people, who formed the Union.... Men, their rights and nothing more; women, their rights and nothing less. ~Susan B. Anthony
I somehow missed this article when posted. Right, we read about it first HERE! It amuses how much angst it causes a Rep to admit they think Hillary would whip them all in '12.
-- Edited by reddirtgirl on Saturday 2nd of October 2010 04:31:22 PM
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