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Hillarysworld -> Hillary 2012 -> Could Hillary return in 2012? (Redstate 6/17/10)
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TOPIC: Could Hillary return in 2012? (Redstate 6/17/10)
Jen the Michigander


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Could Hillary return in 2012? (Redstate 6/17/10)
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http://www.redstate.com/ben_domenech/2010/06/17/could-hillary-return-in-2012/

Rob Long uses two datapoints — the stunning decline of Barack Obama’s popularity, and the rise of Hillary Clinton’s — as the basis for a timeline of the unthinkable: could Hillary Clinton challenge Obama in 2012?

Note: I have also posted the Rob Long article. It's the "New Hamshire, Next Summer" article.

There’s certainly space for a McGovernesque movement here — I think the important datapoint here is the activist left’s fundamental rejection by the White House, borne out in the San Francisco protests which united Tea Partiers and Code Pinkers. Obama has disappointed his base in so many areas, either by failing to keep his promises or by dragging his feet on things they view as moral imperatives — on health care, on Gitmo, on Afghanistan, on security policy, on DADT, and on any number of other policies. There will be ramifications for that disloyalty.

This is a more serious question than you might think, regardless whether Hillary really does write a bestseller in “Delivering the Goods: What I Learned at the State Department, What I Learned from Main Street.” I personally think there will be a challenge, though perhaps not from HRC herself, though her angles — competence, foreign policy acumen, a call to break the last barrier for womanhood, and vindication on the spoiled promises of hope and change — are rather appealing.

I honestly think there is an opening here for the return of Howard Dean. A strong ideological progressive who had an opening to gain the nomination in 2004 before his very public gaffe (amazingly, there was no YouTube then), he has little to lose and has already established a national network, and elected a great many Democrats with his broad national strategy. He has also been the most openly critical of any potential 2012 candidate of this administration on nearly all the areas I listed above. Clinton would need to leave the State Department in short order after the midterms, and even then, she would’ve had more of an opening if Obama had tacked further left on his foreign policy, not right.

The real question at this point ought to be: who does Tim Gill want to give money to? Money makes things happen. (”That’s why they call it money.”). You have to have someone with a preexisting money source or a motivated base. That is a very short list — but if unemployment is still at ~10%, and Obama’s numbers are still average at best, someone on that list will almost certainly make a challenge.

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freespirit


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We've heard the Dean possibility before. And, while it's true that before some progs were devout Obots, they were first, devout Dean followers, I can't see the party going further left. Even though BO has been "Bush Lite" in many areas, his core followers were and are true lefties. They would probably support Dean if he challenged BO, but the party leaders, even those who sold their souls to Obama realize that the country will not accept ultra-left policies ... not without a fight. I don't think they'll go down the left side again in 20-12 - not with the current incumbents experiencing such opposition.

I doubt Hillary will directly challenge Obama (for party unity's sake), though, it's entirely possible, IMO, that O will find a reason not to seek a second term. The narcissist in him can't take loss. Remember in the elections he participated in prior to 2008, he manipulated the situation to get rid of opponents. Election was pretty much a sure thing. The Dem primary race, as we now know, was rigged, bought, and paid for before it ever started, and still, he actually lost. However, as we also know, the party didn't allow his losing to deter them from awarding him the nom - just as they had planned to do. So, basically, there was little chance of not "winning" in any of the elections in which he's run, thus far.

His policies and performance during his first term have reduced his chances of winning in 2012, unless the pubs run a serial killer as their party nominee. Unless things turn around, I think he'll find a reason not to run - giving Hillary the perfect opportunity. If she begins to distance herself from him and his administration pretty soon, she'll have an excellent shot of winning a GE.

I'm sure the conservatives will pull out all their anti-clinton weapons if she does get the nom. My guess is the Pubs and some of the Dems - the ultra-libs - would rather see Dean nominated if Obama declines to pursue reelection. If Hillary decides to run, no doubt, the old sexism and anti-clinton hype will begin. Fox News will be one of the worst offenders, hawking their message of hate to any and all who will listen.

We'll be in for a fight - rapid responding, blogging, commenting on the hate blogs and posts. Yes, we'll have a fight on our hands, alright. Damn! How great would that be?!

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Jen the Michigander


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Obama's approval ratings at Rasmussen are down to 41 percent. If he stays that low, or sinks lower, it's possible that the Dems will encourage him to bow out. There's no way they can get him reelected with those numbers.

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Good article Jen, and good perspective there from freespirit that I agree with also.

Peggy Noonan seems to think that people are likley to pursuade Hillary towards 2012 but Michael Tomasky does not. 
See their articles:  Peggy Noonan: A Snakebit President
and  Michael Tomasky responding on Noonan's article: On whether Democrats made a mistake

I'd say Tomasky has his blinders and blinkers on if he is not seeing and reading so many emerging articles making the same observation.  Hillary will have a lot of pressure from DNP leadership in the coming months.

As freespirit observes, if the ratings run as low towards the end of the year, it is inevitable that party leadership will ask her, and the POTUS himself may decide not to go for another run.

This time, they cannot say she is not qualified or hanging onto someone else's coattails. She is proven and they cannot even make fun of her foreign trips.  But will she want it.  If she sees it as a calling from the people, she will agree because of her very intense sense of loyalty.

Notice today at the end of the Senate Armed Services Cmte hearing Sen.Levin of MI wanted to talk with her privately...   This is a key senator among the DNP leadership...

-- Edited by Sanders on Friday 18th of June 2010 10:14:29 PM

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Jen the Michigander


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Hmm, I wonder what's up with the Hillary-Levin talks? He's my senator from my sorry state, so if I hear anything I will pass it along. (BTW, Michigan isn't #1 in unemployment anymore; Nevada now holds that distinction.)

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freespirit


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It would be interesting to know what the two of them discussed.

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Sanders


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Jen, Yes, I read that NV had the highest unemployment rate. Very tough. As much as I dislike Harry Reid, I am not a fan of Angle.  [Read this and see the video here to know why I am concerned about her: Sharron Angle Finally Meets a Real Journalist Named Nathan Baca Posted by JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief, The Moderate Voice, Jun 18th, 2010 ] and this related article: GOP Senate Nominee Sharron Angle Breaks Her Silence.

 On Hillary's testimony on the Senate Armed Services Cmte I got just a small piece of it today.  The same is on (re-run) tomorrow 10am on C-SPAN.

And, yes, freespirit, I'd love to know what they discussed!



-- Edited by Sanders on Saturday 19th of June 2010 01:16:32 AM

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Hillary 2012!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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