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Voters Divided Over Obama vs. Republican Candidate in 2012

Republicans most often mention Romney, Palin as preferred candidate

PRINCETON, NJ -- Registered voters are about equally divided as to whether they would more likely vote to re-elect Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election, or vote for the Republican candidate.

These results are based on a Feb. 1-3 Gallup poll. Forty-four percent of U.S. registered voters say they are more likely to vote for Obama, 42% for the Republican candidate, and the remaining 14% are undecided or would vote for another candidate.

A year into his first term as president, Obama's approval ratings are hovering around 50%. The 50% approval figure has been a strong predictor of an incumbent president's re-election: presidents who averaged 50% or better from January of an election year through Election Day have all been re-elected. This includes George W. Bush, who averaged 51% in 2004, though his approval rating was 48% in Gallup's final pre-election poll.

Most Democratic voters and Republican voters plan to support their own party's candidate for president in the 2012 election. Independents currently show a greater preference for the Republican candidate than for Obama, by 45% to 31%, though about one in four do not have an opinion. However, even with independents leaning in the Republican candidate's direction, Obama is tied among all voters because of the greater proportion of Democratic identifiers in the registered voter population.

The re-election question pits Obama against an unnamed Republican candidate. Several prominent Republicans have already visited the early caucus and primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire, and later this year, some may announce their intention to seek the party's nomination.

The poll asked Republicans and Republican-leaning independents to name, without prompting, whom they would most like to see as the party's 2012 presidential candidate. It is clear at this early date that most Republicans have not developed a preference, with 42% not having an opinion or volunteering that they do not prefer any candidate.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin are most frequently mentioned, by 14% and 11%, respectively. Seven percent mention Arizona Sen. John McCain, the 2008 nominee. Newly elected Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, former Arkansas Gov. and 2008 candidate Mike Huckabee, and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich are each mentioned by at least 3% of Republicans.

Whereas conservative (15%) and moderate or liberal (14%) Republicans are about equally likely to mention Romney as their preferred nominee, Palin is much more likely to be mentioned by conservatives (14%) than by moderates and liberals (3%). Conservatives generally outnumber moderates and liberals by about 2 to 1 within the Republican Party.

When Gallup asked Republicans last July which of several candidates they would be most likely to support in the 2012 primaries, Romney, Palin, and Huckabee received the most support.

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If the economy continues to be down in the dumps and if job recovery continues the way it is has been forecast already, Romney will likely emerge as the GOP candidate.  He may select Scott Brown as his VP candidate.  That is likely to be a winning combination.

-- Edited by Sanders on Friday 12th of February 2010 11:17:06 AM