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Hillarysworld -> We Told You So The Kool Aid Recovery Forum -> The Clinton Voters Jump Ship (Weekly Standard 2/15/10)
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TOPIC: The Clinton Voters Jump Ship (Weekly Standard 2/15/10)
Jen the Michigander


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The Clinton Voters Jump Ship (Weekly Standard 2/15/10)
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http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/clinton-voters-jump-ship

The conventional wisdom is that Barack Obama’s decline in the polls represents a new, unexpected turn against him. But an examination of the results of the recent elections in Virginia, New Jersey, and Massachusetts suggests that what we might really be seeing is a return to the skepticism that significant portions of the electorate have showed about Obama from the beginning of his national career.

For six months during the 2008 primaries, Obama and Hillary Clinton crisscrossed the country wooing voters. Obama consistently failed to win over important parts of the Democratic base, even after it became clear that he was going to be his party’s nominee.

On February 5—Super Tuesday— Obama did poorly in both New Jersey and Massachusetts, losing to Clinton by 10 and 15 points, respectively. The exit polls were in line with Obama’s performance throughout the primary race: He did very well with blacks, wealthy voters, highly educated voters, and very young voters. He did poorly with working-class whites and older voters. In New Jersey, Obama was +20 among voters under the age of 29, but about -26 among voters over 50. In Massachusetts, he ran even with young voters, and -31 among those over 65. As for education, Obama was -41 among voters with only a high school degree, but ran even, or just ahead, among voters possessing postgraduate degrees. And then there was gender and race. In New Jersey, Obama was -19 among white men; in Massachusetts he was +1.

In addition to the demography, there was geography. Obama ran well in urban enclaves. He also did well in college towns and state capitals. But he did poorly in the suburbs and in smaller industrial towns.

The Jacksonian Democrats tended to be white and working-class; the academics tended to be highly educated, and often government employees. This divide is often attributed to latent racism in the Jacksonians. But a suspicion of Barack Obama shouldn’t make you a racist. Consider the case of Buchanan County, a Jacksonian stronghold on the Virginia border next to both West Virginia and Kentucky. Obama lost Buchanan County to Hillary Clinton by a margin of 90 to 9. Which might make one view Buchananites with some suspicion—except that in the 1989 gubernatorial race, Douglas Wilder won Buchanan County by 18 points over his (white) Republican rival.

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Alex


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I don't know if this hold true.  I've read that it is independents that are abandoning O-criminal in droves, and that is good news for America!!wink

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Sanders


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Excerpt:
 The question, then, is how these various coalition groups—the white ethnic enclaves, the Jacksonians, the suburban and industrial town voters—have reacted to Democrats since Obama took office. And the answer is: Without enthusiasm.

========================

Good article. Reminds me of Sean Trende's analysis of Virginia Gov election votes vs. 2008 and 1998-2004 election comparison, etc. This article is more summative while Sean's was more analytical.  This article also derives learnings from Massachusetts.

All in all the Weekly Standard of 2/15 looks to be a good issue. I might start subscribing to it.



-- Edited by Sanders on Tuesday 9th of February 2010 07:31:57 PM

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jdona


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RE: "The Clinton Voters Jump Ship" (Weekly Standard 2/15/10 Issue, posted 2/9/10)
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I read the whole article, which was kinda boring until I came down to the last 3 paragraphs. This guy gets it, I really doubt the rest of the Democratic party does, but here it is in a nutshell:

"But if we accept that the comparisons are at least marginally valid, then Obama is not encountering some new, unanticipated resistance from the electorate. Instead, it may be that his general election triumph was the aberration—that his coalition was never as strong as the financial panic of September 2008 made it seem. It would mean that he is now returning to his natural base of support and that the Jacksonians and others who resisted him in the primaries have turned away once again from his charms.

But it also suggests something more, that the Democratic party is now the party of Obama, for good and for ill. While the president is no Jacksonian, his party has many in its ranks. Democratic officeholders should be concerned about their voters fleeing not just from Obama but from their party as well. The president may be in the process of trimming the Democratic base back into something that looks an awful lot like his own primary base.

A few weeks ago Representative Marion Berry, a Jacksonian from Arkansas’s First District, recounted an exchange he had with the president. Asked how he was going to prevent a midterm disaster on the scale of 1994, Obama replied, “Well, the big difference here and in ’94 was you’ve got me.” Which may be precisely the problem. "




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Hillarysmygirl16


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RE: The Clinton Voters Jump Ship (Weekly Standard 2/15/10)
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MERGED excellent article and very true.  Remember during the primary that poor whites and working class were painted as racist.  They weren't racist.
The majority of black people voted for Obama because he was black hard to disappoint someone when they vote for something physical.  He is still going to be black in four years.


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VotedHillary


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A few weeks ago Representative Marion Berry, a Jacksonian from Arkansas’s First District, recounted an exchange he had with the president. Asked how he was going to prevent a midterm disaster on the scale of 1994, Obama replied, “Well, the big difference here and in ’94 was you’ve got me.” Which may be precisely the problem.

This will be the problem for the Dems in 2010 and 2012 just as Bush was for the Republicans in 2006.

BTW, the headline is wrong.  It should read THE REST of the Clinton voters jump ship.  Many already jumped ship in 2008.



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jdona


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Jen, Douglas Wilder truly did transcend race. I firmly believe that if we didn't have a constitutional limit for one term Wilder would have been elected again. I'm not sure what happened since then, he was a huge disappointment in the primaries that if Obama didn't win it there would be riots in the streets. I lost all respect for him then.

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greenleaf


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VotedHillary wrote:

BTW, the headline is wrong.  It should read THE REST of the Clinton voters jump ship.  Many already jumped ship in 2008.



 Heck, some of us never actually got on the Obama ship!



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Sanders


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greenleaf wrote:
VotedHillary wrote:

BTW, the headline is wrong.  It should read THE REST of the Clinton voters jump ship.  Many already jumped ship in 2008.

Heck, some of us never actually got on the Obama ship!

Yes, greenleaf!  Many never got on the course to begin with..

Jumped ship is a massive misstatement at a couple of levels. A temporary statement in any election is no declaration by any group.

That said, Massachusetts was a unique case. Eminence may be able to share some of his insight into MA election. There was a shift there that was unmistakable.. Yet, it cannot be summarily stated as a Clinton camp shift. There are overlaps. And I would venture a bet that the shift is temporary.

-- Edited by Sanders on Tuesday 9th of February 2010 07:30:06 PM

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Hillarysmygirl16


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As for Wilder and the rest of the people stating that their would be riots if Obama lost.  I never believed that but I believe their will be massive riots if he is assisnated and that would be true. 
People didn't expect him to actually win and most black people from the ghetto or other wise spent more time praying he would win then threating to riot.
That whole thing ticked me off because it was racist.

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Hillarysmygirl16


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bump

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