Europe

A still darker Russia

Nov 13th 2009
From The World in 2010 print edition
By Arkady Ostrovsky MOSCOW

Once more into the unknown

Reuters1945 and all that

After ten years of Vladimir Putin’s rule, first as president and now as prime minister, predicting Russia’s future should have been easier. Mr Putin takes the credit for making Russia more stable than it was in the chaotic 1990s. In the name of this “stability” he took control over Russia’s television, its parliament, chunks of its economy and almost all of its politics. He anointed his loyal subordinate, Dmitry Medvedev, as president and himself assumed the role of all-powerful prime minister. As Mr Putin let it be known in September, the next presidential election in 2012 will be decided in similar fashion by him and Mr Medvedev.

Yet Russia’s future is as uncertain as ever. This is partly because decisions in Russia depend on Mr Putin’s will and on the barely decipherable relationships within the Kremlin, rather than on institutions such as parliament or the courts. And partly because whatever decisions he makes do not always translate into actions: many of them get bogged down in a corrupt and inefficient bureaucracy.

By all accounts, in the past few years corruption has become worse, the economy has become more dependent on oil and the Soviet-era infrastructure is cracking. Most worryingly, the violence in the North Caucasus has spread from Chechnya to the rest of the region. Reports of killings and explosions come daily from Ingushetia and Dagestan, as well as from Chechnya itself.

In an article published in September 2009, Mr Medvedev wrote about the ineffective economy, the half-Soviet social system, weak democracy, negative demographic trends and an unstable Caucasus. But in the same article he cautioned against rushing through political changes. Like many of Russia’s technocrats, he seems to believe that a knowledge-based and innovative economy can develop in a political system that is neither free nor just.

Opinion is divided on what awaits Russia in the next year or so. One view is that Russia faces a choice between becoming more authoritarian, nationalist and aggressive towards its neighbours, or opening up its politics to competition and modernising its economy. Another view is that Russia will keep sliding slowly into stagnation. Which view prevails may largely depend on the oil price: a higher oil price would point to stagnation, a big drop would force Russia to make tough choices.

Trial and error

At home, the best test of Russia’s direction in 2010 may be the outcome of the second trial of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a jailed former tycoon. His trial has become a showpiece of political interference and repression. The first case against Mr Khodorkovsky and his former business partner, Platon Lebedev, was a sham. The second one is absurd: not only has it ignored the principle of double jeopardy, it has also alleged that the very existence of Yukos, once Russia’s largest oil company, was illegal. Every day the trial makes a mockery of justice.

More . . .

"