WASHINGTON – Republicans wrested Virginia from the Democrats Tuesday in a one-sided sweep of top offices, and New Jersey's unpopular Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine fought for his political life as independent voters swung behind the GOP in elections in both states. It was a troubling sign for President Barack Obama and his party heading into an important midterm election year.
Conservative Republican Bob McDonnell's victory in the Virginia governor's race over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds was a triumph for a GOP looking to rebuild after being booted from power in national elections in 2006 and 2008. It also was a setback for the White Housein a swing state that was a crucial part of Obama's electoral landslide just a year ago.
In New Jersey, the early vote count showed Republican challenger Chris Christie leading Democrat Corzine. Exit polls showed independents heavily favoring Christie.
Voters in both Virginia and New Jersey said their top concern was the economy.
Elsewhere, Maine voters weighed in on same-sex marriage in a closely watched initiative, and New York and California picked congressmen for two vacant seats. A slew of cities selected mayors, and Ohio voted on allowing casinos.
One year after Obama won the White House in an electoral landslide and Democrats expanded their majorities in Congress, much of the focus was on Virginia and New Jersey. The outcomes were sure to feed discussion about the state of the electorate, the status of the diverse coalition that sent Obama to the White House and the limits of the president's influence — on the party's base of support and on moderate current lawmakers he needs to advance his legislative priorities.
As if on cue, Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid indicated Tuesday that Congress may not complete health care legislation this year, missing Obama's deadline on his signature issue and pushing debate into a congressional election year.
The president had personally campaigned for Deeds and Corzine, raising the stakes in low-energy off-year elections. Thus, even one Democratic loss was a blot on Obama's political standing to a certain degree and signaled potential problems ahead as he seeks to achieve his policy goals, protect Democratic majorities in Congress and expand his party's grip on governors' seats next fall.
Democrats had won big victories in Virginia in 2006 and 2008, and they have considered New Jersey a stronghold.
But interviews with voters leaving polling stations in both states on Tuesday were filled with reasons for Democrats to be concerned and for Republicans to be optimistic.
Early returns in Virginia showed that by a 2-1 margin McDonnell was winning rapidly growing, far-flung Washington, D.C., suburbs — places like Loudoun and Prince William counties — that Republicans historically have won but where Obama prevailed last fall by winning over swing voters. Republicans swept all three statewide Virginia offices up for grabs: governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general.
"Bob McDonnell's victory gives Republicans tremendous momentum heading into 2010," declared Haley Barbour, chairman of the Republican Governors Association. "His focus on ideas and pocketbook issues will serve as a model for Republicans running next year."
Independents — the crown jewel of elections because they often determine outcomes — were a critical part Obama's victory in Virginia and across the country. But after more than a year of recession, they fled from Democrats in a state where the economy trumped all. And exit polls indicated they were doing the same in New Jersey.
The Associated Press exit polls showed that nearly a third of voters in Virginia described themselves as independents on Tuesday, and nearly as many in New Jersey did. They preferred McDonnell by almost a 2-1 margin over Deeds in Virginia, and Christie over Corzine by a similar margin.
Last year, independents split between Obama and Republican John McCain in both states.
The surveys also suggested the Democrats had difficulty turning out their base, including the large numbers of first-time minority and youth voters whom Obama attracted. The Virginia electorate was whiter in 2009 than it was in 2008, when blacks and Hispanics turned out in droves to elect the country's first black president.
Democratic victories in both Virginia and New Jersey in 2005 preceded big Democratic years nationally in 2006 and 2008.
Tuesday's impact on Obama's standing and on the 2010 elections could easily be overstated. Voters are often focused on local issues and local personalities.
Yet, national issues, like the recession, were clearly a factor, with voter attitudes shaped to some degree by how people feel about the state of their nation — and their place in it.
It was also difficult to separate Obama from the outcomes after he devoted a significant chunk of time working to persuade voters to elect Deeds in Virginia and re-elect Corzine in New Jersey.
More than four in 10 voters in Virginia said their view of Obama factored into their choice on Tuesday, and those voters roughly split between expressing support and opposition for the president. People who said they disapprove of Obama's job performance voted overwhelmingly Republican, and those who approve of the president favored Deeds, the Democrat.
The Obama factor was similar in New Jersey, though there were slightly more voters who said the president did not factor into their choice.
Obama campaigned in person for both Deeds and Corzine and was featured in their advertisements. He characterized the two as necessary allies in the White House's effort to advance his plans. And he deployed his political campaign arm, Organizing for America, in an effort to ensure the swarms of party loyalists and new voters he attracted in 2008 turned out.
He also spent energy trying to ensure the Democrats would pick up the GOP-held vacant 23rd Congressional District seat in New York, where Democrat Bill Owens faced conservative Doug Hoffman.
That's the race that highlighted fissures in the Republican Party between conservatives and moderates, illustrating problems the GOP could have in capitalizing on any discontent with Obama and Democrats that Tuesday's results may show.
Obama needs all the lawmakers he can get to pass his legislative priorities of health care and climate change, but defeats Tuesday could make it much harder for him to persuade moderate Democrats from right-leaning states and conservative districts, who are hearing from voters worried about his expansion of government at a time of rising deficits, to get on board.
Defeats also could tease out upcoming problems for Democrats, particularly in moderate districts and inswing states like Ohio, Colorado and Nevada, as they defend their turf next fall. In 2010, most governors, a third of the Senate and all members in the House will be on ballots.
! Hilarious Associated Press typo in first paragraph:
