With a fortnight to go to the midterms, moderate “Blue Dog” Democrats are in big trouble. The party’s left-wing “Yellow Dogs” are up in arms about being taken for granted by the White House “hippy bashers”. Even black bloggers are warning President Barack Obama they won’t be “pimped” for him.
In this febrile climate within the party, there is one Democratic figure whose soothing tones can help calm things down – the Big Dog himself, former President Bill Clinton. I caught up with him in Española, New Mexico, site of the first European colony in America, last week and he was on vintage form.
Gone was the red-faced, finger-wagging Bill who I saw in South Carolina in early 2008, when he exploded with anger at being accused of racism by Obama allies as the Democratic nomination slipped from his wife Hillary’s grasp. Instead, Española saw Chilled Bill, a man vindicated by events and who knows he was right to warn of Obama’s shortcomings.
Bill, hoarse-voiced but with a glint in his eye, explained that this was his 80th event. He made crystal clear just who he was representing on the campaign trail – and it wasn’t Obama. “I planned to do about one stop for everybody that helped Hillary run for president because she’s one of only two members of the president’s cabinet who cannot participate in politics,” he said.
Bill’s energetic reappearance on the campaign trail comes just as rumours, some of them eagerly fuelled by the Clinton camp, swirl that Hillary might replace the hapless Joe Biden as Obama’s vice-presidential running mate in 2012 or even challenge the President for the Democratic nomination if his popularity continues to slide.
Neither option makes much sense for Hillary, who has performance as Secretary of State, in which she has been supportive of the US military and sought to stiffen Obama’s spine in Afghanistan, has won admirers even on the Right.
Becoming vice-president would tie her to Obama on domestic policy. Through political good fortune (not to mention calculation), she has been out of that arena for the past two years, meaning that there are no Clinton fingerprints on unpopular health care, bail-out or stimulus legislation.
Hillary has been loyal to Obama – it would have been politically foolish to appear otherwise – but her discrete job means she can remain distant from most of what he does.
It just so happens that Hillary will be out of town on November 2nd, when Democrats expect a pummeling at the polls. She’ll be on the other side of the globe, in fact, on a tour including stops in Australia, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea.
The message is unmistakable: “Nothing to do with me!” Challenging Obama in 2012, even if he is in dire straits, would be incredibly risky. To seek to oust the first black president would split the Democrats in two and almost guarantee a Republican victory even if Hillary won the nomination. It’s a non-starter.
But 2016 is different. No one takes her denials of wanting to run again at face value and aides are no quietly putting it about that she still has her eyes on the White House. Her former chief strategist Mark Penn recently polled her popularity compared to Obama’s.
Bill’s stump speeches are helping lay the foundations of a 2016 campaign. His presence on the campaign trail, often in parts of the country where Obama is not so popular, reinforces the 2008 argument that the Clintons (in terms of power politics, it is fruitless to view them separately) can reach places Obama cannot.
The 2016 argument makes no sense. Six years from now, who is going to remember where Bill went in 2010 or who he campaigned for? But 2012 is a different story. Why else would Bill be out there so much if it's not for Hillary 2012? Bill is a busy man. He has his foundation, he has Haiti, he could be earning mucho dinero giving speeches. Or he could take a break and play some golf. But instead, he's out on the campaign trail. I'm sure he enjoys it to some degree. However, this has practically become a full-time job for him. There has to be a reason for it, and Hillary 2012 is the most logical explanation. What else is there?
It also shows that the wounds of the epic Obama-Clinton battle of 2008 have not healed. Conspicuous by his absence from Española was Bill Richardson, the current New Mexico governor, who was publicly branded a “Judas” by James Carville, the Clinton consigliere, for endorsing Obama. Richardson was never even mentioned by Denish or the former President.
Heh, heh, heh...
I chatted to Bill Clinton briefly as he worked the rope line. Having garnered some unwelcome headlines in 2008, he was sticking very firmly to the script this time.
“She’s already answered that,” he said, when I asked him if there really was any chance she might replace Biden in 2012. He turned and added: “I’ll tell you what, she likes being Secretary of State and she’s doing a great job.”
So might she run in 2016? The Big Dog of the Democratic party paused, appeared to be about to hold forth and then seemed to hold himself in check. “She speaks for herself on these things,” he said, flashing me a big grin.
Yes, Hillary will be running for reelection in 2016.
Depending on how big a "blood bath" 2010 is, she may run in 2012 with Obama pulling an LBJ move...won't run again....at the Dem Party bosses insistance before the party itself becomes obliterated.
That would be such sweet justice in my book.
Howard Dean, Donna Brazille et al must be so proud of themselves right about now. They did the same thing the Republicans did...chased out their moderates...difference is the Dem Blue Dogs will vote Republican.
-- Edited by VotedHillary on Sunday 17th of October 2010 02:44:27 AM
I hope the LBJ scenario plays out, as well. i don't think Hillary will nor probably should run against Barack. But, I do think if the party's hurting as bad in 2012 as it apparently is now, BO will find a reason not to run - probably, at the urging of party players.
Looks like the "new base" Donna bragged about hasn't shown the loyalty and staying power necessary to keep the Dems winning. Good!
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It was we, the people; not we, the white male citizens; nor yet we, the male citizens; but we, the whole people, who formed the Union.... Men, their rights and nothing more; women, their rights and nothing less. ~Susan B. Anthony
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Hillarysworld -> Hillary 2012 -> Clinton back out campaigning ‘for everybody that helped Hillary run for president’... (UK Telegraph 10/16/10)