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The Age of Austerity

By Robert Samuelson

WASHINGTON -- We have entered the Age of Austerity. It's already arrived in Europe and is destined for the United States. Governments throughout Europe are cutting social spending and raising taxes -- or contemplating doing so. The welfare state and the bond market have collided, and the welfare state is in retreat. Even rich countries find the costs too high; but the sudden austerity could perversely trigger a new financial crisis.

Europe's plight is now the most obvious threat to the already lackluster global recovery. The International Monetary Fund forecasts the world economy will expand about 4 percent in 2011. Although this sounds respectable, the underlying growth predictions for the United States (2.3 percent) and Europe (1.8 percent) are so low that there would be little, if any, reduction in the 38 million unemployed in these two major economies.

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The ultimate hope is to buy time. Effective deficit cuts, it's argued, will ultimately spur economic growth by reassuring bond markets that debt levels are sustainable and justifying lower interest rates. That's also the theory of new British Prime Minister David Cameron, who's proposed shrinking government spending a sixth by 2015.

Austerity is transforming economics and politics. The Age of Entitlement was about giveaways; the Age of Austerity will be about take-backs. The Age of Entitlement was about maximizing economic growth; the Age of Austerity will be about minimizing economic reverses. Similar dilemmas confront most advanced societies. Even Germany's government debt as a share of the economy is large (73 percent in 2009).

Governments are caught in a vise. Without unpopular spending cuts and tax increases, unmanageable deficits may choke their economies. But those same spending cuts and tax increases also threaten economic growth. The United States is not exempt. Low American interest rates mean bond markets haven't yet turned on us. We need not threaten the recovery by immediately slashing budget deficits. But we do need to act convincingly to curb future deficits. Austerity can't be fun; but how painful is still partially up to us.

Full article @ RCP

This is the other side of the argument on economic downturn - the perspective of the wealthy and big interests. 

All in all, we cannot avoid austerity, regardless of who is in charge in the coming decade.