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TOPIC: From Wall Street: Obama Won't Run Again (HuffPo 9/13/10)


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From Wall Street: Obama Won't Run Again (HuffPo 9/13/10)
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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dan-dorfman/from-wall-street-obama-wo_b_714612.html
Mounting friction between Wall Street and the White House has taken on an intriguing new dimension, notably speculation from the investment community that President Obama will be so bruised by 2012 that he won't even try to seek re-election.

That's a far cry from Wall Street 's thinking during the last national election when then presidential candidate Obama managed to captivate a fair share of the Street's fat cats. At the time, a number of them looked upon him as an inspirational breath of political fresh air and backed him with their wallets. But that was yesterday. Today, he has lost most of his allure in the investment community, with many there condemning him.


That's also the thinking of San Francisco money manager Gary Wollin, who says "unless the Republicans put up someone who has been practicing canabalism, they can't lose in 2012."

Noting that the president has been on the attack against Wall Street, in effect blaming it for killing Main Street, Wollin sees little Street support for Obama in the future. He also expects the President to lose much of his Jewish support from Wall Street, Hollywood and from far left progressives because of his strong pro-Arab stance.

The Obama legacy, as he sees it, is one of "great expectations, but instead disappointment and plenty of it."

It all adds up to what the polls say will be a Democratic drubbing in the mid-term elections even though, some Wall Streeters argue, the Republicans are exhibiting themselves as political deadbeats. Why so? Because, some Republican critics say, all they do is gripe about Obama, but fail to offer up a concrete set of proposals of their own to arrest the economic drag and get the country's financial house in order.

The belief on Wall Street is that the virtually certain big Republican win in November will reinforce the view that President Obama's reign as America's CEO is on borrowed time.

It's pretty much a repeat of what happens time and again in Corporate America. In brief, a company's bottom line goes to pot, its stock price takes a dive and the CEO is booted out. In Obama's case, the expectation is he will simply be voted out.

Harry S. Dent, Jr., a Florida investment adviser, newsletter writer and author, takes it one step further. Dent, who expects the economy to be in a deep economic downturn by the second quarter of next year, a plight he sees extending into 2012 or 2013, believes Obama's approval rating will be so low when the next national election rolls around that he will be afraid to run again.

"The economy makes or breaks Presidents, not vice versa," he says. "So with our economy failing and many signs indicating it will only get worse," Obama," contends Dent, "is politically dead."


[quote[In his latest commentary to his newsletter subscribers, Dent expressed the view that 2012 could witness an ultimate three-way race for the Presidency, The trio: Hillary Clinton, a far right nominee (Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich) and Michael Bloomberg, who Dent expects to seek the White House as an independent candidate). If that were to happen, Dent says Bloomberg, an accomplished businessman, would be his top choice.

Bloomberg supports the Ground Zero mosque. That may not matter to someone like Dent, but it will kill his chances of getting ordinary folks to vote for him.

Maybe so, but it's worth keeping in mind that another sure thing -- Hillary Clinton's nomination as the Democrats' Presidential nominee in 2008 -- turned out to be a myth as Obama pulled off what many political pundits thought was the impossible. Could he do it again? As of now, Wall Street says no way.



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