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Hillarysworld -> Hillary 2012 -> Clinton vs. Palin in 2012? Stranger things have happened (Daily Caller 7/19/10)
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TOPIC: Clinton vs. Palin in 2012? Stranger things have happened (Daily Caller 7/19/10)
Jen the Michigander


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Clinton vs. Palin in 2012? Stranger things have happened (Daily Caller 7/19/10)
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http://dailycaller.com/2010/07/19/clinton-vs-palin-in-2012-stranger-things-have-happened/

Keep in mind, the Daily Caller is a conservative site.

Let’s assume, however, for the sake of argument, that Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination in 2012—without the majority of African-American voters that are unlikely to abandon Obama. Could she assemble a winning coalition in November, and who would be the most difficult Republican to defeat?

Assembling a winning coalition following a divisive intra-party struggle in an environment where the majority of Americans are dissatisfied with the way Democrats have been governing won’t be easy. Many disaffected Democrats, especially African Americans, are likely to stay home on Election Day. Many Independents who voted for Obama in 2008, suffered buyers remorse, and believe the country has shifted too far to the left are likely to vote Republican.

Nevertheless, Hillary Clinton would give any Republican a run for their money and indeed could win the 2012 election under the right circumstances. She’s an experienced campaigner, she has a deep reservoir of talented Democratic political operatives she can call on, and she knows every trick in the Democrats’ playbook.

Much, then, will depend on which Republican Clinton is up against. Right now the top four prospects for the Republican nomination are Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, and Sarah Palin. A recent poll by Public Policy Polling matched them up against Barack Obama in a 2012 race. “He trails Mitt Romney 46-43, Mike Huckabee 47-45, Newt Gingrich 46-45, and is even tied with Sarah Palin at 46 . . .”

What’s noteworthy about this poll is not that three out of four Republicans beat Obama in these hypothetical matchups, but that Sarah Palin tied him. It’s Palin that Democrats and some Republicans have written off as the least likely Republican to win the 2012 election. The results of this and other polls belie that. Increasingly, she’s looking more like a viable candidate. As I wrote back in February, Sarah Palin’s presidential prospects are not as bad as some would lead you to believe—a judgment others now are coming to.

So how would these four Republicans stack up against Hillary Clinton? Unfortunately, we’ll have to wait until someone runs a poll to find out. It’s the matchup between Clinton and Palin, however, which would be the most interesting. Not only would we have two women vying to become the first female President of the United States, making it a foregone conclusion, but, contrary to what many pundits believe, it’s Palin that could be the most difficult for Clinton to defeat.

Not so. It's the Independents who would swing this election and Palin keeps polling lower and lower among Independents.

Because the majority of women traditionally vote Democratic, that gives Hillary the advantage with women if she’s running against a middle-aged white-male Republican. If Sarah Palin topped the Republican ticket, however, that calculus doesn’t necessarily hold. The ranks of conservative women are growing, they make up a majority of Tea Party supporters, and many Independent and some Democratic women are drawn to Palin.

I don't see this so much anymore. I saw it in 08, sure. But Palin has been courting the right-wingers and only the right-wingers for nearly a year now. Then there's the experience gap between her and Hillary.

Past polling on women’s attitudes toward Clinton or Palin doesn’t necessarily predict how they might vote in 2012 if these two women were on the ballot. Voters won’t view Hillary Clinton or Sarah Palin through the same lenses they viewed them through in 2008. Liberalism’s excesses and failures during Obama’s term will have diminished the value of the liberal “Hillary” brand, and the left’s attempt to portray Sarah Palin as dumb and uninformed will have been exposed, as it largely has been already, for what it is—fear of Palin’s appeal.

2012 is still geological ages away in political terms as the cliché goes, but the possibility of a Clinton-Palin contest is not far fetched. Both women are major political forces in their respective parties, and both have their eyes on the Oval Office. Stranger things have happened in American politics.

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freespirit


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Palin would draw the right wing women, and she is a popular figure, in general. Plus, the country may swing back to the hard right, after the fears that Obama is going way to far left.

However, I think a more important factor to consider is that people recognize the danger of electing someone who lacks experience. They see the damage that Obama has done because of his inexperience and his lack of readiness to lead. Sarah has the same problem. She's appealing and folksy, but in my opinion, she lacks the knowledge and experience to be potus. She's certainly light years behind Hillary in that regard.

The race would be interesting, and, hopefully, we would see much less misogyny and sexism than in 2008 - Obviously, with both candidates being female, that would certainly make a difference.

My money's on Hillary no matter what.

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Jen the Michigander


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There's also the Bush factor. If Hillary runs in 2012, she can remind folks how much the Repubs messed up when they were in charge. In 2016, this will be harder to pull off because the public has a short memory. (Witness all the conservatives who glorify Reagan. Do these folks remember how lousy the economy was in the early 1980s? Or was it just my imagination that the free/reduced lunch line at my junior high school was soooo much longer than the regular price lunch line?)

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Sanders


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Jen the Michigander wrote:

There's also the Bush factor. If Hillary runs in 2012, she can remind folks how much the Repubs messed up when they were in charge. In 2016, this will be harder to pull off because the public has a short memory. (Witness all the conservatives who glorify Reagan. Do these folks remember how lousy the economy was in the early 1980s? Or was it just my imagination that the free/reduced lunch line at my junior high school was soooo much longer than the regular price lunch line?)


Jen, I clearly recall. Early 80's was horrible economy.  True, people do tend to forget. 

But in 2012, yes, Hillary will have tremendous advantage from "Experience" claim AND being a non-Republican. 

What is absolutely clear is how much Hillary loves the U.S. If trends continue the way they have, Pres.Obama may be smarter to back-out. He and FLOTUS Michelle can do very well indeed in their lives post-WhiteHouse. Let us not forget her high-paying career is on hold and they will both make lots of money on books, talking circuits, etc.  Besides it is not all that easy to have a teenage daughter living in the WH; really cannot be all that much fun for the kid if she has to watch her back four times over with every "friend."

Anyways, I hope to see Hillary run.  It is what is best for the country... and if she is convinced of that, I think she will run.

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