Hillary Clinton will likely be the Democratic nominee for president in 2012, not Barack Obama. And that would be the case even if the BP oil spill had not occurred.
Say what you will about President Obama's always apparent intellect and his undeniable "cool," but the first 18 months of his presidency have been characterized by an unwillingness to vigorously fight for the reforms that he so loudly and consistently supported when he was but a mere presidential candidate.
The tension-inducing Arizona anti-immigrant law of this spring might not have been enacted if President Obama had not refrained from introducing meaningful federal immigration reform legislation in 2009. Now that the Democrats have less than the 60 votes needed to break a filibuster in the U.S. Senate, it is almost assured that Obama will not be introducing any radical legislation (immigration-related or otherwise) prior to the November midterm elections. And after these elections, once an even larger contingent of mean-spirited Americans assumes seats in Congress, there will be very little chance of legislation that is both financially sound and socially responsive.
Apart from having done little on the immigration reform front, President Obama has also thoroughly repulsed many of those who supported his 2008 presidential bid by situating well over 100,000 American troops in Afghanistan. This troop expansion came from the same Barack Obama who all but swore (while he was but a mere presidential candidate) that he would get America out of Iraq (and, presumably, Afghanistan as well) as soon as possible. While, to his credit, we are now slowly working our way out of Iraq, our heightened involvement in Afghanistan has been an unmitigated failure. For those reluctant to concede as much, it might prove instructive to read The New York Times' "U.S. Intelligence Puts New Focus on Afghan Graft -- Risky Military Effort -- Could Lead to Top Level of a Government Rife With Corruption" (June 13).
Even Obama's supposed signature legislative victory, health-care reform, is increasingly being viewed as but a glass half-full. Why? One: Folks who had supported achieving affordable health care were deeply saddened once they realized, early in the deliberative process, that Obama had capitulated on the issue of whether there would be a so-called public option. Two: Some provisions won't take effect for another four years. Three: Many of our 50 states are going to get financially murdered by the new and more expansive Medicaid eligibility guidelines flowing from it.
There will almost certainly be a Republican rout in this November's congressional elections, due to President Obama's refusal to more vigorously fight for the interests of his pre-2009 supporters. I believe Democrats across the country will see President Obama as toxic to their efforts to hold on to the White House and they'll look to someone else to be their 2012 presidential nominee. Bye, Barack; hello, Hillary.
It was we, the people; not we, the white male citizens; nor yet we, the male citizens; but we, the whole people, who formed the Union.... Men, their rights and nothing more; women, their rights and nothing less. ~Susan B. Anthony