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North Dakota's Senate race

On the frontier

The state’s quirks are the Democrats’ nightmare

Feb 11th 2010 | FARGO | From The Economist print edition

ON JANUARY 18th, as Democrats scrambled to defend their vital but doomed Senate seat in Massachusetts, the Republican Senate minority leader was on the attack some 1,600 miles (2,575km) to the west. “They need to be stopped,” Mitch McConnell proclaimed cheerfully in Fargo, North Dakota. Byron Dorgan, North Dakota’s junior Democratic senator, had just shocked the political world by announcing, on January 5th, that he would retire. He has no clear successor, or at least not one from his own party. Mr McConnell was stumping for John Hoeven, the state’s Republican governor and Senate hopeful.

The Democrats’ agenda has played poorly in North Dakota. So far there is only one Democratic candidate, a one-term state senator who announced his bid on February 5th. The state is a reminder of the varied local idiosyncrasies that nationally may add up to disaster for the party at the mid-term election this November.

North Dakota has only 641,000 residents, or 0.2% of America’s population, scattered across more than 70,000 flattish square miles. Yet, like every other state, it has two senators; so attention must be paid. It is hard to know how to get it right though. North Dakotans revere the private sector, but have a state-owned bank and grain-elevator company. Though residents say they despise bloated federal budgets, in 2005 they happily received $1.68 for every dollar they paid in federal taxes.

Three moderate Democrats make up the state’s Washington delegation and have excelled in bringing home pork. Now Mr Dorgan’s retirement and a frontiersman’s fear of federal overreach give Republicans a chance. Many North Dakotans shudder at the hint of government-run health care. They are angry about the federal deficit—the state itself has a surplus, thanks in part to an oil boom. The cap-and-trade plan is deeply unpopular. North Dakota produces 30m tons of lignite coal each year. Mr Hoeven is a well-liked, pragmatic third-term governor. A swing to the right seems all but inevitable.

It would help if there were an imposing Democrat to block the pendulum. But Mr Dorgan’s announcement caught local Democrats off guard. Tracy Potter, the only Democratic candidate so far, is a long shot. Many Democrats hope that Heidi Heitkamp, a former attorney-general, may enter the race. But when Ms Heitkamp ran for governor in 2000, she lost to Mr Hoeven by ten points. It may not be surprising that the Democratic field is slim. Mr Hoeven is a formidable opponent, and campaigning for the nomination requires traversing the state in the bleak midwinter.

Republicans, meanwhile, are gleeful. Gary Emineth, chairman of the state Republican Party, also hopes to topple another Democrat: Earl Pomeroy, North Dakota’s one-and-only congressman. “It will be a solid one-two punch,” he predicts merrily.

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