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Newsmax/Zogby Poll: Scott Brown Could Defeat Obama in Presidential Race

Tuesday, 26 Jan 2010 12:37 PM

By: David A. Patten

A stunning new poll conducted by Newsmax/Zogby reveals that Massachusett's new Republican Sen.-elect Scott Brown could defeat President Barack Obama in a presidential election.

The Newsmax/Zogby poll released Tuesday found that the pair would be statistically deadlocked if the presidential election took place today.

The poll indicates surprisingly weak support for the president among independent voters, who favor the tyro Brown by 48.6 percent to 36 percent in a hypothetical matchup against Obama.

Mark McKinnon, the respected political strategist who created former President George W. Bush's successful television ad campaigns in 2000 and 2004, told Newsmax that the survey results should trigger alarms for Team Obama.

"The real problem for Obama is that he has lost the middle, and losing the middle means losing independents," McKinnon said. "And it is independents that are responsible for swinging elections one way or the other in this country. So if you lose independents, you're going to lose the presidency."

The poll asked likely voters: "If the election for president of the United States were held today and the only candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Scott Brown, for whom would you vote?"

Based on the 4,163 responses, Obama leads Brown by 46.5 percent to 44.6 percent. That amounts to a statistical tie because the Zogby survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.5 percent.

[SNIP]

Voters with incomes under $50,000 back Obama 54 percent to 37 percent for Brown.

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That's a really big sample for such polls. It is a significant poll.

-- Edited by Sanders on Tuesday 26th of January 2010 08:54:20 PM