Hillarysworld

January 26, 2010

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Breaking: This Political Event Matters (Not)

Barack Obama's first State of the Union address is Wednesday. The political media is already in typical form. The speech is framed as the next seismic event. It's not – not if the speech's objective is shaping the American mind.

Bill Clinton and George W. Bush's annual addresses combined, on average, changed their Gallup approval rating one point. The last five presidents combined averaged no change (polling was too infrequent to measure before Jimmy Carter).

The influence of modern State addresses is limited to the political class. The machinery of government listens for lessons learned and future goals. The oration is rated. But it is primarily political theater. One more anchor in the presidential narrative.

The public mind is not easily changed. It's gradually molded. So it goes with presidential power. The chief executive does not steward public opinion in quick turns. It's more like turning an oil tanker. Slow going. (Emphasis added)

Nearly all televised addresses affirm this rule. Presidential scholar George Edwards, in his book "On Deaf Ears: The Limits of the Bully Pulpit," reviewed the impact of every televised address from 1981 to 2003, also utilizing Gallup data. He found that most presidential addresses fail to significantly shape the public's views. The exceptions largely concern war: Desert Storm, the 9/11 attacks or the second Iraq war. The same is true regarding great scandals, Iran-Contra or Watergate. But in scandal and war, the opinion shift is more likely a reaction to the jarring event; it's not the rhetoric about that event.

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