Chris Cillizza |  December 18, 2009

A series of national polls released in recent days suggest the American people are mad as hell and they aren't going to take it anymore.

In a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll just 22 percent approve of the job Congress is doing. Just 38 percent said their Member of Congress deserves to be re-elected while 49 percent said it is "time to give a new person a chance".

That "throw the bums out" mentality is particularly dangerous for Senate Democrats who have five incumbents on our new Line.

The power of incumbency still matters -- money, organization, name identification, campaign know-how -- but the tempestuous mood of the electorate serves as a tremendous equalizer, giving challengers a chance at a fair(ish) fight that they might not get otherwise.

For Sen. Chris Dodd (Conn.) and Harry Reid (Nev.) the problem is particularly acute as the power that they hold in Washington, which normally would be a strong argument in their favor in the eyes of voters, may wind up actually hurting them if this anti-incumbent sentiment persists into next year.

As always, the number one ranked race on the Line is the most likely to switch parties next November. You can rate the races yourself at the bottom of this post and/or offer your thoughts on our picks in the comments section.

To the Line!

10. Pennsylvania (Democratic-controlled): Democrats insist that while they are headed for a very contentious primary between party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak in the spring, no matter who emerges (and the race seems to be a jump ball at the moment) will have a clear edge over former Rep. Pat Toomey (R). Polling suggests that Toomey is in a dead heat with Specter but when some of his more controversial past statements as president of the Club for Growth get a full airing it will be far tougher for him to keep his veneer of moderation. (Previous ranking: 9)

9. Illinois (D): The two frontrunners in this race -- state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias for Democrats, Rep. Mark Kirk for Republicans -- benefit immensely from the state's very early primary. Both hold comfortable leads in recent polling and once people start paying attention to politics after the holidays there will be roughly a month for their challengers to make up ground. (The Illinois primary is Feb 2.) A Kirk-Giannoulias general election will be both fascinating to watch -- the Republican will have to answer for his votes in Congress, the Democrat for his ties to Broadway Bank -- and extremely close. (Previous ranking: 10)

8. Colorado (D): We won't know whether state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff's primary challenge to appointed Sen. Michael Bennet is serious until early next year when campaign finance reports are due at the Federal Election Commission. Romanoff won't match Bennet in cash collected but he has to show an ability to raise enough to stay within financial shouting distance of the incumbent. Republicans are excited about the candidacy of former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton but the candidacy of wealthy state Sen. Tom Wiens complicates her path to the nomination. Assuming Bennet and Norton emerge from their primary fights (and they should), the outcome of the general election could depend heavily on the political environment in the state and nationally. (Previous ranking: 7)

7. Arkansas (D): The Republican field continues to grow with former Arkansas Farm Bureau president Stanley Reed getting in last week. (UPDATE: Reed withdrew from the race this afternoon.) State Sen. Gilbert Baker is still the favorite of the party establishment but Reed's background (and personal wealth) could make him an attractive candidate. And, Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) continues to look somewhat unsure of herself -- particularly in her handling of the health care vote. Lincoln voted for cloture and will almost certainly vote for final passage as well, votes that will be used as campaign fodder by the Republican nominee. Given the state's strong Republican lean -- President Obama took just 39 percent in 2008 -- and the tough political terrain for Democrats at the moment, this race looks likely to move up the Line. (Previous ranking: 8)

6. Ohio (Republican-controlled): The struggling state economy -- unemployment at 10.6 percent -- have badly eroded support for Gov. Ted Strickland and, to a lesser extent, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher -- the party's likely Senate nominee. Former Rep. Rob Portman (R) has major problems of his own -- chief among them his service as U.S. Trade Representative in the Bush Administration -- but he is a quality candidate who has proven himself to be a very good fundraiser. National mood will matter here and if there is an anti-Democratic sentiment in the country, Portman is well-positioned to benefit. (Previous ranking: 5)

5. New Hampshire (R): Earlier this week, we had the chance to sit down with businessman Ovide Lamontagne, who is challenging establishment favorite and former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte in next year's Republican primary. Although he is a down-the-line conservative, Lamontagne comes across as neither angry nor unreasonable -- a potential problem for Ayotte. The issue for Lamontagne is whether he can raise enough money to both re-introduce himself to the state's voters (he was the GOP gubernatorial nominee way back in 1996) while also defining Ayotte as out of the conservative mainstream. Meanwhile, Rep. Paul Hodes, who avoided a Democratic primary race, is free to raise money and ready himself for a general election fight. (Previous ranking: 4)

4. Missouri (R): Given Democrats' struggles at the national level over the last six months, it's somewhat remarkable that Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) continues to remain in a statistical dead heat against Rep. Roy Blunt (R). Democrats are supremely confident about their chances of winning this open seat -- citing Carnahan's skills as a candidate and the treasure trove of attacks available on Blunt from his time in Congress. A continued decline in the national environment for Democrats, however, could be an equalizer in a state that is among the most evenly divided along party lines of any in the country. (Previous ranking: 6)

3. Delaware (D): Republicans continue to hope -- perhaps against hope -- that state Attorney General Beau Biden (D) will take a pass on this open seat race against Rep. Mike Castle (R). Democrats insist that Biden is still almost-certain to run and is simply making sure he has everything in place before formally announcing. Assuming Biden runs, this will be the second great Senate race in the last ten years in Delaware. (The first being Sen. Bill Roth vs Gov. Tom Carper in 2000.) (Previous ranking: 2)

2. Nevada (D): For all of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's (D) political smarts, it's hard to ignore the fact that he is trailing two unknown Republicans -- former state party chairwoman Sue Lowden and businessman Danny Tarkanian -- in a slew of independent polls conducted over the past few months. And, Reid's ads, which paint him as someone who delivers for the state, haven't moved his numbers in any appreciable way -- a fact that should worry his allies. Democrats argue that the weakness of the Republican field is Reid's best argument for re-election but if voters are truly sick of the Nevada Democrat, they may be willing to try almost anyone else. The test for Lowden, the likely Republican nominee, is whether she can be a credible alternative. (Previous ranking: 3)

1. Connecticut (D): The drumbeat for Sen. Chris Dodd (D) to step down is starting to be heard in political circles in Washington and Connecticut. Dodd allies insist he has no plans to retire and believe there is a path for him to win re-election by scoring a series of legislative accomplishments over the early months of 2010 and, in doing so, proving his relevance in the state. But, polling suggest voters don't trust Dodd any longer, which is a difficult thing for a longtime incumbent -- Dodd has been in the Senate since 1980 -- to overcome. Republicans are headed toward a serious primary fight between former Rep. Rob Simmons and wealthy political newcomer Linda McMahon. (Previous ranking: 1)