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TOPIC: "GOP Gains on 'Generic Ballot'" (CQPolitics 12/23/09)


Diamond

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"GOP Gains on 'Generic Ballot'" (CQPolitics 12/23/09)
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CQPolitics

GOP Gains on 'Generic Ballot'

Republican candidates now lead Democrats by 8 points in the latest "generic congressional ballot" survey published by Rasmussen Reports -- but adding a "Tea Party" candidate to the mix prompts a different dynamic.

The national telephone survey, conducted over the past week, showed 44 percent of respondents would vote for their district's Republican candidate while 36 percent would opt the Democratic opponent. Support for GOP candidates held steady over the past week, but support for Democrats slipped by a point.

However, if a Tea Party candidate is in the race, the picture changes. A separate, three-way Generic Ballot test found that Democrats attract 36 percent of the vote, while the Tea Party candidate picks up 23 percent and Republicans finish third at 18 percent. Another 22 percent are undecided.

Men prefer GOP candidates by 19 points over Democrats, while women are evenly divided between the two. Among unaffiliated voters, Republicans lead by 43 percent to 19 percent.

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I expect the Dems numbers will go down.  Health care reform is going to bite the Dems in the behind.

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