First, layoff announcements have declined dramatically. The peak month for job cuts was January 2009, at 241,729, the highest since January 2002. Since then, monthly job cuts have steadily dropped to 50,349 in November, the latest available. In the first half of 2009, monthly job losses averaged 130,000; in the second half of the year (through November), the average was almost half that, at 69,000.

Second, hiring plans have picked up. Take a look at the following

Hiring Announcements: 2009 vs. 2008

Of course, these numbers just reflect announcements and, as the firm notes, many hiring and firing decisions are made with little or no public notice. It's also true that many industries continue to have less hiring than in 2008: in the energy sector, hiring announcements in 2009 total 7,525, down from 18,216 in 2008. Still, the trend lines are unmistakable. In 2008 and the first half of 2009, there was lots of firing going on—and not much hiring. Now, the firing is subsiding, and hiring is reviving. All told, hiring announcements in 2009 totaled 236,981, compared with 118,600 in 2008. At some point next year, the lines ought to cross. Payrolls will expand and, sooner or later, the unemployment rate will begin to drop.

"The end of the year is typically when we see a surge in layoff activity," said John A. Challenger, the firm's chief executive, in a statement. "The fact that job cuts continued to decline in the fourth quarter is a good sign that the job market has truly started the recovery process."

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