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Elections' Stakes: Control of Senate

Retirements, Voter Ire Make GOP Majority a Possibility

By NAFTALI BENDAVID, FEBRUARY 17, 2010

WASHINGTON—Lawmakers in both parties are contemplating for the first time the possibility that the Republicans might recapture the Senate this year, though it's an uphill climb in which the GOP would have to win states that have recently been inhospitable to the party.

Republicans' prospects are surging, driven by an electorate deeply dissatisfied with Washington, the economy and incumbents. And the surprise retirement announcement from Sen. Evan Bayh (D., Ind.) Monday on the heels of a host of other bad news for Democrats is prompting party leaders to take a fresh look at the Senate landscape.

Because Democrats hold a 59-41 voting majority in the Senate, Republicans would have to gain 10 new seats and retain all of their own to gain control. (Emphasis added)

In swing states such as Arkansas and Nevada, Democratic incumbents are facing fierce headwinds. Democratic retirements have handed the GOP unexpected opportunities in places like North Dakota and now Indiana. In Democratic strongholds such as Illinois and Delaware, Republicans are running strong campaigns.

The question is whether the GOP can add to that list. Emboldened by their recent victory in Massachusetts, Republicans have begun looking at states that tilt Democratic like California, Wisconsin, Washington and New York.

Congressional Contests

Take a look at close contests in the House and Senate for 2010.

"It all comes down to the candidates," said Sen. John Thune (R., S.D.). "If you have good candidates, states like California and Washington can be put in play." Mr. Thune played down the chances of a Republican takeover—"we don't want to blow too much happy smoke out there yet"—but voiced cautious optimism about the Republicans' political fortunes.

Sen. Robert Menendez (D., N.J.), who coordinates the Democrats' Senate campaigns, dismissed the prospect as fantasy, saying the Democrats are running strong campaigns for five seats currently held by the GOP. "I think it's wishful thinking by the Republicans," Mr. Menendez said.

Winning all these races in November, which Republicans would have to do, is another matter. One hurdle, Democrats point out, is that it isn't clear the GOP will have candidates in Wisconsin, Washington or New York who can mount serious challenges to Democratic incumbents.

Elsewhere, Republicans face divisive intra-party contests. "Republicans have a few weird primaries out there," said Jennifer Duffy, who follows Senate races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

GOP leaders in Washington are pushing the Senate candidacy of Carly Fiorina, former chief executive of Hewlett-Packard, in California, where they hope Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer is vulnerable.

Ms. Fiorina is opposed in the GOP primary by former Rep. Tom Campbell and State Assemblyman Chuck DeVore. Party leaders say privately they wonder if Mr. DeVore, a staunch conservative, in particular would have the funds or the appeal to win statewide. Mr. DeVore, in an interview, strongly disputed that view.

In some of the Democratic-leaning states Republicans view as potential targets, they are having trouble recruiting the candidates they want.

New York is a Democratic stronghold that has a history of electing moderate Republicans on occasion, and Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, who was appointed to replace Hillary Clinton, has struggled. But former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, who was considered to be a strong potential candidate, has declined to challenge Ms. Gillibrand. The other big-name Republican who could match Ms. Gillibrand's clout is former Gov. George Pataki, but he has so far shown little interest in the race.

In Wisconsin, Republicans are courting former Gov. Tommy Thompson to take on Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold. Mr. Thompson has said he was considering the idea, but hasn't committed himself. "Tommy Thompson wants to be in it, but doesn't want to work for it," Ms. Duffy said. "I'm sorry, governor, it doesn't work that way anymore."

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Full article.
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We will likely end up with a balanced Senate, with neither side having majority. That in fact, is probably the best outcome. They will be forced to work together to get anything done.

-- Edited by Sanders on Wednesday 17th of February 2010 12:36:07 PM